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Michael Pizzolla’s
2009 Preakness
Handicapping Magic Rant
From The Desk Of Michael Pizzolla
May 15, 2009
5:57 AM
Las Vegas
Dear Friend:
Well, I really need to buy a tape recorder.
Not only do I want to have a record of what I’ve been hearing, I want to record some answers to questions I’ve been asked a hundred times since the Kentucky Derby. Here’s what my conversations have been like for the past 10 days.
MOTO: (Oh, MOTO is Dan Serra’s term for Master Of The Obvious, and I use it affectionately): WOW, did you see that Kentucky Derby!
Me: Yes, quite a race.
MOTO: Wasn’t that a great ride by BoRAIL?
Me: Yes, BorEL really rode the colt well.
MOTO: I didn’t have that horse, I liked (fill in the MOTO horse here). Did you have Mine That Bird?
Me: Not even with a Ouija Board.
MOTO: Well, he was 50-1, you can’t bet a 50-1 shot, can you?
Me: Actually, I did, I had a 30-1 shot and two 50-1 shots keyed in my exotic bets.
MOTO: Why did you do that?
Me: It was a terrible betting race, and I wanted to bet a couple of hundred to make a couple of hundred thousand.
MOTO: Too bad, well, you can’t win every day, can you?
Me: No, but Derby Day was a winning day for me.
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MOTO: How’s that, you lost on the Derby?
Me: I wasn’t CLOSE in the Derby, but I knew going in that it was a race I really shouldn’t be betting, other than trying to make a big, year-making score with a relatively small bet.
The two horses I liked (and talked about in the Kentucky Derby Rant) ran very well. The 4 horse in the 4th at Belmont, Haley’s Lolipop ran a fast closing 3rd at 10-1 in a 5 horse field. Missed that one.
MOTO: So how was it a winning day?
Me: Well, the other horse I liked was Senor Afortunado who missed by a nostril at 13-1 in the 12th at Hollywood, triggering a $244 exacta and that was all I needed for a profitable day.
MOTO: Oh, that was late in the day, and it was a $12,500 Claiming Race in the 12th at Hollywood, non winners two lifetime. (Note: The MOTO who said this one was a respected physician who loves Southern California racing).
Me: I know.
MOTO: How could you bet a race like that when there were so many classy races running on Derby Day?
Me: Um, I invest in the races to win money, and to me races like that are things of beauty.
MOTO: Yeah, yeah, so, who is it in the Preakness?
A small tape recorder would have saved me many, many breaths I can never recover.
You know, I came to realize just how differently I treat the game, just how differently I invest, than the average player. Not that I’m any genius, it’s just that over the years I’ve learned to spot those horses that the public SHOULDN’T like that have some good things going for it.
And my life is made so much easier having an information management tool like Black Magic: The Ultimate Handicapper™ to cut through all the noise and all the information that’s so readily accessible by everyone.
That’s what the game has come down to.
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From http://gamblerstelevision.com The Belmont Stakes is a punishing race for any potential Triple Crown winner. The 1-and-a-half mile run is a distance that most horses have never even run, nor will they be asked to run this distance ever again in their racing career. Big Brown will make his third start in 5 weeks, up against horses that have had it a bit easier with few weeks off. Big Brown wasn’t afforded the luxury of taking a break for the Preakness or Kentucky Derby. Or miss both jewels of the Triple Crown and come in fresh while the Triple Crown candidate must gut it out. You can understand why no other horse in 30 years has achieved a Triple Crown.