I handicap horses in these categories: pace, track favorability, condition favorability, jockey, workout, class, distance, and breeding. How should I rank these factors? Which are more and less important?
Ultimately you have to figure these things out for yourself; handicapping is an art and not a science. My experience is that every race is different–class may determine one result, another will be settled by pure speed, some are won by jockeys, and still others come down to breeding. You have to look at each race individually. As the discipline is an art, you have to develop your own style and hone it as the results dictate.
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Ultimately you have to figure these things out for yourself; handicapping is an art and not a science. My experience is that every race is different–class may determine one result, another will be settled by pure speed, some are won by jockeys, and still others come down to breeding. You have to look at each race individually. As the discipline is an art, you have to develop your own style and hone it as the results dictate.
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For example, take a maiden claiming race. All of those factors you list are likely important. It could be a horse that is well bred that is the winner. Maybe it's a class dropper. Maybe it's the one who is working well. Maybe it's the one who tired last time out in a route and is shortening up. You can't rank them the same way every time, because every race is a distinct entity. You just have to look at all those factors and develop a feel for which ones might be decisive in each given event.
The one thing you don't have listed, though, I'm sure you know it's important, is to look at the trainers and what their patterns. In California, for example, handicappers know that Mike Mitchell and Ted West are particularly dangerous with a horse that they recently claimed, that Carla Gaines wins at an extremely high percentage with her smallish stable, and that everything Bobby Frankel sends out should be taken seriously.
Too many variables to make a profit consistently! That being said…….
These are my priority considerations, not necessarily in order of importance:
Class- Going up or down in this race; Does he belong with these based upon past performance?
Trainer %- Is the trainer successful in properly entering the horse where it will "be in the money?" Sometimes it's difficult to second guess the trainer's motive.
"Trip"- of the last 2-3 races; stalker,Speedster? ,come from behind? Can he make the distance? Read the comment lines on the charts.
Money earned- Per start & overall. Tells you something about it's class.
Post time Track conditions- A mudder, a "webbie"? Also,
"courses for horses"; better on turf or main track?
If possible-know the signs of a healthy, "happy" horse and look it over in the paddock, mounting area.
Some consideration:
Jockey- The best jocs get the best mounts. Maybe.
Equipment changes- maybe. For example; mud calks are expensive. Putting these on prior to a race means that the trainer/owner is serious.
To a lesser extent:
Beyer and Tomlinson numbers.
Dossage index
speed rating
M.L. odds
Post position (A much bigger factor in harness racing)
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