Comments for Handicapping Horse Races

Comment on In your opinion, what thoroughbred race horse was the best ever? by Nulty

Nulty — Sun, 03 May 2009 19:33:26 +0000

There’s a good case for Phar Lap, an Australian horse with 51: 37-2-3 and 9 unplaced. Unfortunatley he was poisoned by some one in the US when he visited. Some say the mafia. See some of the weight he carried in G1 races, unbelievable!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phar_Lap

Comment on How to fatten up a thoroughbred ex-racing horse? by joanne

joanne — Sat, 25 Apr 2009 09:09:34 +0000

Hi
i ha ve the same problem with my thoroughbred racehorse.Did you get a book with him when you got him.I have a mare who is believed to be by boreen but unsure of her mother she ws born in 1991 and i was told sh had a old shoulder injury.I Say she did point to point fell and was retired as a broodmare any sugestions

Comment on How to fatten up a thoroughbred ex-racing horse? by Malissa

Malissa — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 10:51:29 +0000

hey everyone i just got this ex race horse and i’m trying to find out his history, his brand is I1 but the I looks like an side ways H and the other side is 16 over 1. please help me is there any chance i can find his history or a website?

Comment on In your opinion, what thoroughbred race horse was the best ever? by Heidi H Christensen

Heidi H Christensen — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 17:45:48 +0000

Man O’WAR! HE was the “biggest and the bestest”!

Comment on Are there any reputable and reasonably priced horse racing handicapping services for North America? by Bobbo

Bobbo — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 04:10:59 +0000

Simubet
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Comment on Are there any reputable and reasonably priced horse racing handicapping services for North America? by Hillbilly

Hillbilly — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 03:35:59 +0000

nope, they are all a joke !
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Comment on What is the most important factor when handicapping a horse race? by gore_rulez

gore_rulez — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 05:06:59 +0000

Beyers combined with speed on dirt.

Beyers on Poly

Final fractions on grass
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knowledge of horse race betting.

Comment on What is the most important factor when handicapping a horse race? by charles h

charles h — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 04:24:59 +0000

speed it is a race
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Comment on What is the most important factor when handicapping a horse race? by H_A_V_0_C

H_A_V_0_C — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 03:48:59 +0000

close between:

1) early speed advantage over field

2) class advantage over field
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Comment on What is the most important factor when handicapping a horse race? by Walter E

Walter E — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 03:11:59 +0000

A combination of the class of the race and the past performance of the horses in it. For example, in a $3,500 claiming race it is entirely possible that a Longshot will win if its past performance is better than the Favorite's (think Maiden race), so then an overlayed horse may actually be a better choice than an odds-on; while in a stakes race I would never assume that - I'd bet the Favorite to Show. I'd want the horse to have failed in the past at the wrong length or wrong surface rather than at its customary one; I'd want it to have had at least one miserable performance (without injury) that it recovered from somewhere in its racing history. I wouldn't get myself too bogged down with trainer of record in the last race unless he/she was so lousy that the owner changed, which is a sign that the owner is really trying to win and not just trying to condition the horse. Same for the jockey. A lot of times the horses with the best trainers/jockeys have their odds kicked down so low you can't win anything significant yet you can lose it all if they miss. As for surface, never bet a turf favorite to win if the race is being moved off-turf due to rain - that's because turf specialists usually have larger feet, so they bog down worse in mud. In all the stats I have analyzed it seems that Turf Stakes races involving Fillies and Mares running at 1 to 1 1/2 miles are the most erratic in the results of the odds of the winner. Workourts are meaningless as they can be rigged - a friend of mine swears that sometimes they take horses out to a secret pasture and show the serious bettors/potential buyers what a horse that "has no chance" can really do. Coming off a layoff is VERY inportant. In all my studies a horse that has run a good performance within the last 15 days has the edge over a horse with a similar but older performance; this is especially true if the oldest race happened 6-9 months ago, in which case the horse with the oldest race may come in last - I've seen it.

In my opinion the easiest general way to handicap is to pick those that finished in the top 33% of the achievement average of all the horses in their last race, then eliminate the oldest performances, then consider a solid underlayed first favorite and a horse that is a strong contender yet an unjustified-overlay (should be bet on but the public is passing - I don't mean it went from 5 to 2 up to 50 to 1!) But make sure to check the class level of past races and watch for drops/raises in class or to see if any of the horses in the particular race have run against each other - if so, unless one of them won that race, the one that finished in the money or outranked the competitor has a slight edge. The reason I don't like to bet one that won against today's competition is that it may suffer from the "bounce" - but I would put it in an Exacta/Trifecta box.

Hope this helps.
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